PERHAPS the greatest dilemma Nigerians must contend with in next year’s elections is whether they can find a competition to President Muhammadu Buhari worthy of their excitement, support and votes. Former Kaduna State governor, Balarabe Musa, admirably referenced this excruciating predicament when he worried that despite the president’s noticeable failure as a leader and president, no opposition politician appears capable of unseating him. “President Buhari has failed, and everyone knows this, ” he began poignantly and fearlessly. “But let me say too that none of those jostling to replace him has shown sufficient capacity to earn the trust of Nigerians. It is not enough to have integrity; that integrity must be tested for it to become an asset to be sought out for. The leaders of today are interested in themselves, and this is largely the cause of the corruption the country is now infamously known for. If these elements have not been tested and their integrity established, I am afraid there is not much to be taken when 2019 finally comes. It is sad that while the current President has nothing to offer, those who want the job have not shown tested and demonstrable integrity.”
According to the interview he granted the Vanguard newspaper some days ago, Mallam Musa was dismissive of both the president and his challengers. The president, he says confidently, is a failure, suggesting in addition that everyone knows this fact. From the tone of the interview, he did not think that recognising that the president had shortcomings was up for debate of any kind. He thinks it is a settled fact. He probably came to this conclusion because he thought the president was divisive, prompting him to wonder whether any of the opposition parties could field a candidate capable of uniting the country’s diverse population unlike the president. If he went further to identify the failings of the president on the political, social and economic fields, the newspaper did not avail the public of those facts. It appears sufficient for the former governor, who was one of the most ideological state chief executives in the Second Republic, that the president cared little about delivering justice and fairness to the various ethnic, religious and social groups.
Nigerians and Mallam Musa know full well that the only opposition party capable of dealing a mortal blow to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Neither the overhyped African Democratic Congress (ADC) touted by ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo as the deus ex machina for Nigeria’s political stasis nor other coalitions still in formation are capable of denting the reputation or power of the ruling party and its president. So, even if Mallam Musa did not mention the PDP by name in denouncing opposition capabilities, it is clear which party he was talking about. But there are more than half a dozen credible and in fact strong presidential contenders in the PDP, at least one of them a former vice president, some of them former governors, and others leading lawmakers and politicians. If, in the eyes of Mallam Musa, Nigeria cannot find one of these eminent gentlemen to really challenge President Buhari who is himself heavily befuddled by his policy and ideological foibles, then both the PDP and the country as a whole are truly in trouble.
It is unlikely Mallam Musa was exaggerating. The PDP is racked by tremendous but humiliating self-doubt, and its presidential aspirants are hesitant and too measured in exuding the poise and moral anchor required to differentiate and distinguish them. One of them, ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar, may enjoy name recognition on a scale that far outweighs the rest of the PDP aspirant crowd, but he has been unable to shake off the flightiness that critics allege dogs his politics, smother his constant and unrelenting peregrinations and migrations across party lines and affiliations, and curtail his corrosive and gloomy anger that fuel his combativeness. He is probably the most astute mentor his party can boast of, but he sometimes counterbalances this enormous attribute by his pugnacious and single-minded pursuit of personal goals. If Mallam Musa did not find it appropriate to count the former vice president as a credible presidential contender, it may be because he surmises Alhaji Abubakar’s copious gifts to be less striking than his unsubstantial faults. The PDP presidential aspirants list also boasts of Senate President Bukola Saraki, ex-Kano State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, Gombe State governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, Sokoto State governor Aminu Tambuwal, and former Jigawa State governor Sule Lamido, among others. These eminent politicians are strong contenders individually, and nearly all of them are ideological, educated, exposed and are imbued with the character necessary to rule a variegated nation like Nigeria. Dr Saraki is a fighter, regardless of his fluid and elastic principles and his tenuous concession to the sound ethics of governance. Mallam Kwankwaso is a study in political ardour and the indispensable intransigence that undergirds principled politics, regardless of his obtrusion and needless meddlesomeness. Mallam Tambuwal, a lawyer, is a consensus builder and champion of the grand rubrics of opposition politics, regardless of the suspicion that he is in some ways a closet irredentist. And Mallam Lamido, despite his exasperating battles with the anti-graft agency, not to say his suspect adherence to the ethics of governance, is perhaps the most ideological of the lot and a politician eager to build bridges and connect with inspiring mantras.
Yet, nearly all of them, despite their vaunted ideological postulations, are unable to erase the lingering doubts that they are in fact substantially conservative and possessing nothing tangible by way of impressive records to give battle to anyone, let alone to President Buhari whose cultic following still continues to bedazzle mainly the northern part of the country and etch the frightening spectre of his invincibility on the national psyche. Perhaps Mallam Musa simply recognises, by his damning conclusions, that it would take so much more, including a test of integrity which none of the gentlemen contenders have been able to pass with flying colours, to ruffle the president’s impassive feathers and manners, not to talk of unhorsing him completely. The former Kaduna State governor reflects the popular opinion about the near invincibility of the president and the despondency many Nigerians experience in finding a champion to take him on. The chances that they will find such a champion are too quixotic to contemplate.
How, therefore, foreign research organisations such as the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the global financial services organisation, HSBC, and other international analysts could predict President Buhari’s loss in the coming presidential poll when his opponents are not even known and coalitions are yet to be formed against him, is hard to explain. As a matter of fact, some of the presidential aspirants themselves have suggested it would require the collective efforts of the aspirants and their party to unseat President Buhari. But whether that collective effort can be summoned to the arduous but uplifting task of unleashing the real transformative change Nigeria needs is a different matter altogether.
International research organisations and other global analysts seem fairly sure that President Buhari will succumb to defeat in next year’s poll. Mallam Musa, while agreeing with the fundamental diagnosis of the Buhari naysayers, is unsure a saviour can be found to do the job. Nigerians themselves are divided on whether the president can be defeated or whether in fact he should be defeated. That dilemma will be resolved in the next two months or so whether or not the arduous task of defeating the president can be accomplished within reasonable time and with any degree of success. If the PDP candidate, when his party elects him, can engineer the unity and momentum needed to catalyse his campaign, and his party itself can fund and drive a massive mobilisation that resonates with the electorate, perhaps the unthinkable might yet happen. For now, there is no opposition candidate of stature in the ring, partly because the conventions are yet to be held, and the PDP is so crestfallen and too dilatory to face the task fate has appeared to assign them in these uncertain and troublous times.
Source: The Nation
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